Interesting analytical focus. Where is it going next?
Guest Post: 2011 Tipping Points
2011 Tipping Points (pdf)
Throughout my 2010 article series "Extend & Pretend" and "Sultans of Swap" I stressed that we were rapidly moving from the Financial Crisis of 2008, through the Economic Fallout of 2009 -2010, towards a Political Crisis in 2011 -2012. We are now clearly beginning to see the early emergence of the final part of this continuum. From North Africa to Wisconsin all are fundamentally based on the single insidious underlying problem - excessive global debt and credit levels.
The global macroeconomic environment appears to be rapidly unraveling. The situations in North Africa through the Middle East are blatant proof of social unrest and accelerating political instability. Food shortages and inflation pressures are now driving people into the streets. When you feel the hunger in your stomach and see it in the eyes of your children, it quickly erupts and motivates people to action.
It is now time to revisit our Tipping Points framework to see where this is leading. A framework that is clearly pointing to a global fiat currency failure and an emerging new world order which is detailed in our "2011 Thesis - Beggar-thy-Neighbor".
We need to carefully watch:
1) The increasing & accelerated contagion of social tensions. Watch for Asia demonstrations in places such as North Korea.
2) How and if the Central Banks actually do unwind their crisis ‘triage’ programs or are they realistically now permanent and necessary to maintain the illusion of financial stability?
3) New government public policy initiatives to combat growing inflation and price pressures
4) The financial sectors abilities to continue to hide massive nonperforming commercial and residential real estate loans through Federal Reserve endorsed accounting gimmickry.
These events will allow us to determine if our roadmap is still valid or if we are going to see even sooner and possibly poorer financial outcomes than we predict in our free Monthly Market Commentary and Market Analytics reports.
The public will soon wake up to the magnitude of money printing that is going on to support the economic recovery fallacy. When the public does become aware, “Money Velocity” will accelerate.
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